The Bubble is Labor – Cyber Tech

I can not keep in mind after I realized this, however I wish to say it was lower than 5 or ten years in the past. Scared the crap out of me then, and nonetheless does at any time when I give it some thought.

Firms solely rent folks as a result of they cannot do all of the work themselves.

If each founder had 10,000 fingers and brains they may assign to totally different duties, there can be a minuscule fraction of the roles we’ve got in the present day.

If you consider this for quite a lot of minutes, it begins to actually mess with you, and you may seemingly head down the identical path I did.

  1. (Nodding) Oh, I suppose that is true…I suppose someone who can do all of the work themselves would not want to rent anyone…

  2. (Logical) And I suppose they should not be required to rent those that they do not want. That may be bizarre…

  3. (Quizzical) However aren’t we telling thousands and thousands of children in highschool and faculty that there are—and at all times can be—jobs ready for them in the event that they work arduous?

  4. (Nervous) So…who’s really guaranteeing that these jobs are there? Whose job is it to create jobs?

  5. (Panic) Oh shit. No person. It is no person’s job to create jobs.

In different phrases, the one purpose the present labor market (and our economic system that is primarily based on it) exist in any respect is as a result of there is a group of founders/homeowners who want heaps of assist producing their items and companies.

They don’t seem to be required by anybody to rent me otherwise you to assist them if they do not want that assist. And the precise second they will do the work themselves, they are going to, and never a second after.

Everybody’s presently obsessive about how a lot cash is being spent/wasted on AI, as if it is the dumbest use of cash ever.

However whenever you have a look at it on this “returning to pure state of doing their very own work” framing, it is not silly in any respect.

Do not consider it as them hiring AI as an alternative of hiring folks. Consider it as them simply doing the work themselves.

As homeowners/founders, investing a couple of tens of trillions to have the ability to “simply do it myself” out of the blue seems fairly sensible.

So mainly, this complete pitch to younger those that there’ll at all times be jobs after you graduate—which I in some way lived my total life pondering was a fucking Human Legislation of Physics—is definitely only a momentary facet impact of early civilizations with dangerous know-how.

  • Massive-L Labor…a facet impact.

  • Our entire ass economic system that is primarily based on us spending cash earned by doing that labor…a facet impact.

What the precise hell. I’ve recognized this for years now, but it surely stuns me each time I give it some thought.

Hopefully you should use this body to raised perceive each AI and the forces which can be pushing it. And as a push to begin enthusiastic about what comes after.

Notes

  1. I’m conscious that there are some companies, firms, and undoubtedly startups that like working with folks and rising folks. However that is probably not the query. The query is, are there sufficient firms which can be like that? Who would rent those that they do not really want? And are there sufficient of these to maintain a $70 trillion workforce that is powering our economic system? I believe the reply isn’t any.

  2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (OEWS): Official U.S. authorities wage information overlaying thousands and thousands of institutions. Discovered ~100M information staff (38-42% of workforce), with whole U.S. labor compensation at $13.5T yearly. Tech sector median: $104,556; Healthcare practitioners: $83,090.

  3. OECD Common Wages: Worldwide wage comparisons throughout developed economies. Switzerland leads at $115K common, Denmark $84K, Germany $64K. Gives the idea for world information employee estimates.

  4. ILO World Wage Report 2024-25: United Nations labor company information on worldwide compensation. Estimates 1+ billion world information staff with important regional variation ($28K-$150K relying on nation).

  5. Cube Tech Wage Report 2025: U.S. know-how sector salaries. Discovered tech common of $112,521 with solely +1.2% YoY progress in 2024, however 23% annual tech sector wage inflation general. Senior engineers: $130K-$164K.

  6. Robert Half 2026 Wage Information: Skilled staffing agency information. Key discovering: AI/ML roles command 30-50% premium over non-AI positions. AI Architects averaging $204,463; ML Engineers at $197,170.

  7. Upwork Analysis Institute: Freelance information employee information from 3,000 survey respondents. Discovered 28% of U.S. information staff (~20M) are freelancers, producing $1.5 trillion yearly.

  8. Associated put up: The Finish of Work—the best variety of workers is zero. Firms solely rent as a result of they need to, not as a result of they wish to.

  9. Associated venture: Human 3.0—a framework for turning into a extremely conscious and competent particular person residing a purposeful life.

  10. Associated venture: PAI on GitHub—the open-source repo for constructing your individual Private AI Infrastructure.

  11. AIL Degree 2: Daniel wrote this piece in Neovim and through Wispr Movement dictation. I (Kai, his DA) helped with proofreading, including hyperlinks from our analysis, formatting, and I made the artwork utilizing Nanobanana Professional and our personal artwork aesthetic. Study extra about AIL.

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